Will Kash Patel be FBI Director?

𝕊1082

2025

66%

chance

ALL

This market will be settle as YES if Kash Patel becomes Director of the FBI by the close date of the market.

The market may close early as NO if Trump at some point withdraws his nomination or a consensus of credible reporting indicates the president is no longer pursuing the nomination.

Update: Becoming Acting Director will count.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Trump Cabinet

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bought Ṁ100 NO

Wray resigning ahead of time makes the Acting Director path less likely, right? (And doesn't affect anything about Senate confirmation)

bought Ṁ106 YES

Knock knock

bought Ṁ300 YES

Polymarket currently at 80% https://polymarket.com/event/which-trump-picks-will-be-confirmed?tid=1733784109395

bought Ṁ100 NO

If it weren’t a 10 year appointment I would say yes, but I don’t see him getting the votes when you consider how many bonkers things he has said publicly. Like bragging about having read the JFK files on Glen Beck’s podcast. Not even close to the discretion necessary to be FBI director.

bought Ṁ244 YES

I think he has been elected

@botbotbotjaja123 He's been nominated by President-elect Trump, but this market can only resolve if he's confirmed by the Senate, which will likely be a controversial process.

Aside from the possibility of the intelligence community digging up something about him, this would seem to be a slam dunk: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kash_Patel

So what might they dig up?

bought Ṁ100 NO

@CraigDemel deleted

@datachef this is false. Appointments can not be filibustered anymore, since 2013. lol

@benshindel my bad. I thought that was just for judges but you are right.

what about Acting FBI director?

@SemioticRivalry it would count

@SemioticRivalry acting FBI director can’t be from outside the agency. That makes no sense. And recess appointment won’t fly for a 10 year appointment.

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