This market will settle as YES if Donald Trump wins the election and announces that Elon Musk is nominated to a cabinet position by February 28, 2025. Trump must say what the position is; a general expression that Musk will be in the cabinet will not count. "The cabinet" means one of the 15 heads of government agencies, or a role designated as cabinet-level.
If the Republican ticket loses the election, this market will settle as N/A. If the Republican ticket wins but Donald Trump is not able to fulfill his duties, then the market will be resolved based on whether whoever the next president is nominates Musk.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ230 | |
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| 4 | Ṁ165 | |
| 5 | Ṁ158 |
Selling my no because it's unclear to me if the resolver will regard DOGE as "cabinet-level" or not.
(Specifically: I'm not >94% sure that they'll regard DOGE as "not cabinet-level")
Elon going to the "Department of Government Efficiency"
Polymarket is at 20%: https://polymarket.com/event/trump-wins-and-appoints-elon-musk-to-cabinet?tid=1731124727072
That being said, Musk will not be in the Cabinet.
Trump said: “He doesn’t want to be in the Cabinet, he just wants to be in charge of cost-cutting. We’ll have a new position, secretary of cost-cutting, Elon wants to do that.”
If the Republican ticket loses the election, this market will settle as N/A.
Sounds like it should have been higher than 12% on Nov 4. Trump winning shouldn't cause the price to go up.
@WilliamKiely "should have been higher" assuming the current 25% is the right price, which I don't know.