Donald Trump has promised a 10% tariff across the board for all goods entering the United States if elected. This market will settle as YES if Donald Trump gets elected and in any one quarter of 2025, the US weighted average tariff is at least 6%. For the last quarter we have data at this time, second quarter of 2024, the number was 2.4%. It was at 3.5% at its highest level of the Trump presidency.
Data is sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data website (link below). This market will settle as soon as Callum Williams, senior economics writer at The Economist, has calculated the number has crossed the 6% threshold for any quarter in 2025, or it hasn’t for any of the quarters. If, when he does his calculations for the fourth quarter of 2025, the 6% threshold has not been met, this market will then settle NO. This market will settle as YES if either an initial estimate or any revision for any of the first three quarters of 2025 crosses the 6% threshold while the market is open. The fourth quarter number will be based on initial data and the market will close after that data is available at the latest.
If Donald Trump loses the election, this market will settle as N/A. If Donald Trump wins the election but a different president takes office at any point, this market will settle according to the same rules based on the US weighted tariff average for each quarter.
If Callum Williams is unavailable to conduct the analysis, a suitable replacement will be found.
See data here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e
Callum Williams on X: https://x.com/econcallum
@TimothyJohnson5c16 the thing is domestic producers have to pay the VAT too, so it doesn't distort competition even if you hallucinate a lot
@JussiVilleHeiskanen Isn't the goal then to distort competition in favor of US imports?
Israel for example has a VAT of 18% which makes buying american goods significantly less attractive. Wouldn't it make sense, given the relationship between the two countries, that the USA is exempted from this?
Aren't the American goods getting double taxed in practice? Once by America and once by Israel? (I am probably wrong, not trying to sound like an authority on this).
Anyway it's still, in practice, a tax on American companies. Just because Israeli companies are getting fucked over too doesn't mean Americans should be ok with that.
The sweepstakes market for this question has been resolved to partial as we are shutting down sweepstakes. Please read the full announcement here. The mana market will continue as usual.
Only markets closing before March 3rd will be left open for trading and will be resolved as usual.
Users will be able to cashout or donate their entire sweepcash balance, regardless of whether it has been won in a sweepstakes or not, by March 28th (for amounts above our minimum threshold of $25).
@Frogswap Yes, Sweepstakes is shutting down, and markets that don't resolve by March 3rd are being resolved to the current probability.
@GazDownright This comment says it's still a ways off from the target for this market:
https://manifold.markets/RichardHanania/trump-impose-large-tariffs-in-first#mis7ditca09
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Thanks, yeah, I got that off of a quick GPT search myself, but want to sus out if there are some experts in the room.
@Gabrielle there might be some more up-to-date data, but https://ustr.gov/countries-regions says China made up 16.5% of imports in 2022. A 10% tariff on all of that only increases the indicator this market resolves off by about 1.65%, up to about 4.3%. Still needs a lot more to hit 6%.
@cthor Agreed! This alone should not resolve the market, just evidence that he's not entirely bluffing about the tariffs.
@cthor and that is before you account for the producers in China paying part of the tariff in the form of currency valuation changes (CNY down ~2% this year) or in price reductions to stay competitive. The mfg I work for has been getting out of China anyway for the intermediate goods we buy from there (going mainly to Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, and India) because of the geopolitical risks.
@NicholasCharette73b6 The tariffs on Mexico and Canada are paused for 30 days while they work out a deal.
@Marnix Trudeau just said the tariffs on Canada are paused as well. https://x.com/justintrudeau/status/1886529228193022429
There has long been a question if Trump wants tariffs for their own sake or just as a bargaining chip. Last couple hours update me in the bargaining chip direction
@FergusArgyll But Trump said he wasn't using tariffs as a bargaining chip, and that there was nothing the countries could do to delay the tariffs. Did Trump lie? 😱