Donald Trump has promised a 10% tariff across the board for all goods entering the United States if elected. This market will settle as YES if Donald Trump gets elected and in any one quarter of 2025, the US weighted average tariff is at least 6%. For the last quarter we have data at this time, second quarter of 2024, the number was 2.4%. It was at 3.5% at its highest level of the Trump presidency.
Data is sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data website (link below). This market will settle as soon as Callum Williams, senior economics writer at The Economist, has calculated the number has crossed the 6% threshold for any quarter in 2025, or it hasn’t for any of the quarters. If, when he does his calculations for the fourth quarter of 2025, the 6% threshold has not been met, this market will then settle NO. This market will settle as YES if either an initial estimate or any revision for any of the first three quarters of 2025 crosses the 6% threshold while the market is open. The fourth quarter number will be based on initial data and the market will close after that data is available at the latest.
If Donald Trump loses the election, this market will settle as N/A. If Donald Trump wins the election but a different president takes office at any point, this market will settle according to the same rules based on the US weighted tariff average for each quarter.
If Callum Williams is unavailable to conduct the analysis, a suitable replacement will be found.
See data here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e
Callum Williams on X: https://x.com/econcallum
1,000Tax Foundation estimates the rate at 8%+ if Trump continues following through on his main proposals. The "will they / won't they" game has gotten complicated enough I've entirely lost track. Not exactly sure how they're measuring "imposed" vs "proposed" either.
I want to exit my NO shares, but this market is still trading 12% above Kalshi...
Why was this trading >10% higher than an equivalent market on Kalshi?
@MalachiteEagle for one glorious moment I thought Trump was himself tweeting pictures from Peep Show
A lot of movement in this market but less in mine: https://manifold.markets/Cactus/average-tariffs-under-trump-RppCgnISL2
leaving this here in case anyone wants to stat arb
The effective tariff percentage is now close to 10%.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 also worth noting that doesn't seem to include the 25% steel and aluminum tariffs, or the elimination of section 301 exclusions
@TimothyJohnson5c16 close to 10% for a day until Trump exempted Canada and Mexico for another month.
@JoshuaPhillipsLivingReaso doesn't apply to this market, but would be a good market to add.