Will this scientific paper on how to treat monkeypox reach 100 citations by the end of 2022?

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resolved Aug 12

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YES

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A new scientific article outlining management strategies of monkeypox was recently published in the journal Lancet Infectious Disease. Will this article gain international, scientific recognition? Clinical features and management of human monkeypox: a retrospective observational study in the UK. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35623380/ doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00228-6

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Will this paper (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.00965) get at least 50 citations by the end of 2025?

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predictedYES

91 now, surely only a matter of time....

https://scholar.google.ca/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=Clinical+features+and+management+of+human+monkeypox%3A+a+retrospective+observational+study+in+the+UK&btnG=

Already at 67 as of today!

While I agree the probability is high, if monkeypox goes away, to which I assign a reasonable probability, I think it's totally possible fewer than 100 papers will cite this one.

Very easy YES. You have to ask two questions: (1) will there be >100 monkeypox papers (2) can any of those papers avoid citing an early Lancet paper on treatment? The answers are (1) YES and (2) NO, so this is an easy over.

Count me in for M$150

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Will this paper (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.00965) get at least 50 citations by the end of 2025?

11% chance

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