Will my Twitter (@rigormyrole) gain at least 50% as many followers as people voting on this poll?
14
closes Oct 14
60%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Amount
Ṁ0
Ṁ50
Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ16 +66%
New probability
61% +0.8%
https://twitter.com/rigormyrole
START: 7 followers (August 30th)
Resolves in 45 days.
Example: if there are 10 different accounts (including bots) voting on this poll, then I'd need to reach 12+ Twitter followers (7 + 10/2) in order for this to resolve YES. This rounds down, so w/ 9 voting accounts, would need to reach 11 followers (7+4.5, rounded down).
Different factors to consider:
Are people more inclined to vote No or Yes? How does this change as the Payout Odds change?
Yes voters have incentive to follow me on Twitter.
Some manifolders wont have Twitter, eg. bot accounts
I may gain some followers from outside of manifold, for example through posting/commenting on Twitter.
Get Ṁ500 play money
Related questions
Sort by:
0 YES payouts
Ṁ175
Ṁ56
Ṁ52
0 NO payouts
Ṁ83
Ṁ77
Ṁ22
Ṁ20
Ṁ20

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