Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on the first day the U.S. unemployment rate surpasses 30%. The unemployment rate will be determined using the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly Employment Situation Summary, available at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm. The S&P 500 closing value will be sourced from official financial data providers such as Yahoo Finance or Investing.com.

Background

As of May 2025, the U.S. unemployment rate is significantly below 30%, and such a high rate has not been recorded in modern history. The S&P 500 Index, a benchmark for U.S. equities, has experienced various fluctuations but has not been directly correlated with unemployment rates reaching such extreme levels. For instance, during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the unemployment rate peaked at 14.8% in April, while the S&P 500 experienced a sharp decline followed by a rapid recovery.