Will the nutritional mix for baby formula turn out to be relatively harmful compared to foods that could have have been assembled at home with ingredients that can be commonly found in an American ?
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15%
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Currently, infant formula is said (this statement is in itself a bet that if we were to poll a thousand people randomly in a Western democracy, a majority would say that professionally-made baby formula is necessary for survival when breastmilk is unavailable) to require a mix that only some companies can manufacture, and individuals making their own is harmful for infants. For some of the leading brands, corn syrup is the largest ingredient by mass. This question resolves to 'Yes' on three possible conditions: 1) If it seems like a majority of individuals who examine nutrition, are relatively athletic, have biological children, and regularly participate in prediction markets would agree. 2) If a majority of nutritional experts who are willing to publicly engage in bets about experimental results would agree. 3) If there are longitudinal studies of children raised on other baby foods made from commonly available ingredients (to include adults simply chewing less processed foods for them) with a total sample size of more than a thousand that report no signs of malnutrition. May 20, 9:20am: 'commonly found in an American supermarket' May 21, 1:03pm: Adding to 3), in response to Martin Randall: And if there are longitudinal studies associating the use of such infant formulas with increased rates of insulin resistance, asthma, allergies, self-reported anxiety or depression later in life.
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predicts YES
The Baby Formula challenge: drink caro syrup and evaporated milk for a week, then store formula for a week, and see which works better If anyone lasts a day on the vegetables oils will be surprised
Tbh this market is way overconfident (I'd put the odds at 10% or so) but I don't particularly trust a market creator with such a high prior for what I believe to be a fairly low prior question to resolve the market in a way in which I'd agree. So.... staying out of it.
The third condition doesn't show formula as being relatively harmful, it would be a null result.
@MartinRandall Thanks for spotting it!
bought Ṁ5 of YES
Absolutely garbage. Soybean oil, safflower oil, and other vegetable oils that are entirely evolutionarily novel and toxic for a fully developed adult. The worst artificial forms of vitamins (folic acid, etc.) and nasty simple sugars, when breast milk is primarily lactose. As with most food, the higher odds the human body has had thousands of years of exposure to it, the safer it is.
bought Ṁ15 of YES
tbf human milk oligosaccharides are hard to come by, but it's not like infant formula include them anyway (I'm assuming this question is about the vast majority of formulas, not the few good outliers)
@GeorgeVii yep, it's about the majority
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