Ramble's calibration
Grade: A+, Score: -0.07
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Ramble bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
- Will Russian General Sergey Surovikin be demoted in rank, dismissed from the military, or killed before October?NOṀ100
- Will Russian General Sergey Surovikin be demoted in rank, dismissed from the military, or killed before October?NOṀ100
- Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?YESṀ100
70%
80%
90%
- Will the LK-99 poll (by Quantum Observer) reach 5K traders by the end of this month (Aug 2023)?YESṀ100
- Will the LK-99 poll (by Quantum Observer) reach 5K traders by the end of this month (Aug 2023)?YESṀ100
- Will MrBeast’s Squid Game video have half a billion views before the end of September?YESṀ100
95%
97%