Ramble's calibration
Grade: A, Score: -0.19
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Ramble bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
- Will GitHub have a red incident on October 17th 2023?NOṀ10
- Will Threads reach at least 128M users before August 1st as reported by Quiver Quantitative?NOṀ5
- Will any of the following people come out as transgender before the end of 2023? Donald Trump, Elon Musk, JK Rowling, Tucker Carlson, Jordan Peterson, Mark Zuckerberg, Scott AlexanderNOṀ5
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
- Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?YESṀ100
- Will Russian General Sergey Surovikin be demoted in rank, dismissed from the military, or killed before October?NOṀ100
- Will Russian General Sergey Surovikin be demoted in rank, dismissed from the military, or killed before October?NOṀ100
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%