MANIFOLD
Who will be the next premier league manager to leave their post? #4
8
Ṁ2kṀ12k
resolved Jan 1
100%99.0%
Enzo Maresca (Chelsea)
0.0%
Mikel Arteta (Arsenal)
0.1%
Unai Emery (Aston Villa)
0.1%
Andoni Iraola (Bournemouth)
0.1%
Keith Andrews (Brentford)
0.1%
Fabian Hurzeler (Brighton)
0.1%
Scott Parker (Burnley)
0.1%
Oliver Glasner (Crystal Palace)
0.1%
David Moyes (Everton)
0.1%
Marco Silva (Fulham)
0.1%
Daniel Farke (Leeds United)
0.1%
Arne Slot (Liverpool)
0.0%
Pep Guardiola (Manchester City)
0.1%
Ruben Amorim (Manchester United)
0.1%
Eddie Howe (Newcastle United)
0.0%
Regis Le Bris (Sunderland)
0.1%
Thomas Frank (Tottenham Hotspur)
0.1%
Nuno Espírito Santo (West Ham United)
0.1%
TBC (Wolverhampton Wanderers)
0.1%
Sean Dyche (Nottingham Forest)

Resolution criteria

  • Resolves to the answer naming the first permanent Premier League first-team head coach/manager to leave their post after the market’s creation timestamp (UTC on Manifold). “Leave” includes being sacked, resigning, “mutual consent,” or departing for another job; moving into a different non–head coach role at the same club also counts. Interim/caretaker changes do not count unless the club had formally designated the person as permanent at the time of departure.

  • Evidence priority: (1) Official club announcement (news/statement page) with timestamp; if absent/ambiguous then (2) Premier League site article; if still ambiguous then (3) time-stamped reports from BBC Sport or Reuters. Earliest timestamp wins. If two departures are truly simultaneous by published time, use Reuters timestamps as the tiebreaker. (premierleague.com, reuters.com)

  • Rumors/reports without club confirmation do not count. Announced future exits (e.g., “will leave at season’s end”) resolve at the announcement time.

  • Only answers listed are eligible. If the first departing manager is not among the provided answers, the market resolves N/A.

Sources for resolution checks: Premier League managers overview; club sites via Premier League; BBC/Reuters for fallback verification. (premierleague.com, reuters.com)

Background

  • Context: The 2025–26 Premier League season is underway. For reference on current managers, see the Premier League’s 2025/26 managers hub and managers overview. (premierleague.com)

  • Most recent departure: Wolves dismissed Periera on 2 November 2025. This market concerns the next departure after your market’s creation time. (reuters.com)

Considerations

  • Because answers are fixed (no “Other”), if an unlisted manager leaves first, this market will resolve N/A.

  • Temporary absences (medical leave, suspension) don’t count unless the club states the manager has left the role.

  • If a club re-titles the role (e.g., “head coach” vs “manager”), treat them identically; assistants or directors leaving do not count. (premierleague.com)

Market context
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