Background

On December 16, 2024, Wizards of the Coast announced significant changes to the Modern format ban list. The One Ring and Amped Raptor were banned, directly impacting the dominant Boros Energy deck. Simultaneously, several powerful cards were unbanned: Mox Opal, Green Sun's Zenith, Faithless Looting, and Splinter Twin. Prior to these changes, Boros Energy was the clear top deck, followed by Murktide, Domain, Storm, and Eldrazi strategies.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if:

• A single deck consistently represents more than 15% of the Modern metagame across major tournaments

• The deck in question must be different from Boros Energy (with or without The One Ring/Amped Raptor)

• This must occur within 3 months of the December 16 announcement (by March 16, 2025)

The market will resolve NO if:

• No single deck achieves over 15% metagame share by March 16, 2025

• Boros Energy remains the most played deck

• The format remains diverse with multiple competitive archetypes sharing similar metagame percentages

Metagame data will be sourced from major tournaments, MTGO league results, and official Wizards of the Coast data.

Considerations

• The unbanning of powerful cards like Mox Opal and Splinter Twin could enable entirely new archetypes or revive historical top decks

• The Regional Championship season will provide significant tournament data to evaluate the format's evolution

• Previous bannings have sometimes taken several months for the metagame to fully adjust and stabilize