Will I weight 185 or under by end of 2025?
1
100Ṁ10
Dec 31
45%
chance

Resolution criteria

  • Resolves YES if I document a body weight ≤185.0 lb (≤83.9 kg) at any time on or before 11:59:59 pm local time on December 31, 2025 (where “local time” is the location of the weigh‑in).

  • Acceptable proof (posted in the market):

    1. A continuous video showing the scale zeroing, me stepping on, the final reading, and in-frame date/time (e.g., a second device or a handwritten note with “Manifold YYYY‑MM‑DD”).
      or

    2. A timestamped screenshot/export from a connected scale app (e.g., Withings, Fitbit, Garmin, Apple Health) showing a measurement ≤185.0 lb on/before the deadline.

  • Rounding: 185.0 lb counts; 185.1+ does not. If only kg is shown, ≤83.9 kg counts; 84.0+ does not. Shoes off; scale on a hard surface. If multiple documented readings exist before the deadline, the lowest valid one governs.

  • If no qualifying proof is posted by January 3, 2026, resolves NO.

Background

  • Target is body weight at or below 185 lb (≈83.9 kg).

  • As of September 29, 2025, there are 93 days left in 2025.

Considerations

  • Day-to-day weight can swing several pounds from hydration, meals, and glycogen. Morning, post‑bathroom weigh‑ins tend to be most consistent.

  • Different scales can disagree; use the same scale for consistency.

  • If traveling across time zones on December 31, the deadline uses the local time where the weigh‑in occurs.

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