MANIFOLD
Will my roommates finish their jigsaw puzzle before the end of March?
4
á¹€100á¹€40
Apr 1
52%
chance

This puzzle has been out for at least a week. I want to use the table for other things.

Resolves YES if fully solved and/or no more unsolved pieces exist. (If some pieces are missing because the puzzle isn't a complete set or because we lost some pieces, solving it as much as possible counts.) If I am cognizant of them solving the puzzle, I will immediately resolve this YES.

Resolves NO if I am confident they have given up or if they do not finish it by the end of the month.

Resolves N/A if a puzzle solver requests this market canceled. They don't know about this market at time of market creation.

I may provide status updates at whatever time intervals I choose. I am not actively trying to solve this puzzle.

The puzzle solvers are not active Manifold users. I will not trade on this market. Therefore, I believe traders need not worry about insider trading.

Initial state:

Market context
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bought á¹€10 YES

Tell them I’ve got big money riding on them

@Arky I think I want to let them enjoy their puzzle with ignorant bliss of the audience they have.

When was the puzzle last worked on?

@retr0id I can't say for certain, but I want to say about 2 days ago? Maybe? Certainly last weekend they were attacking it.

@retr0id I also want to say this puzzle has probably been out for closer to 2 weeks, not 1.

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