@Tumbles

LET'S GOOOO!

woa a game show

@Tumbles You want in?

Finalizing game rules now. See this comment: https://manifold.markets/post/manifold-game-show-idea#RynhznPl

@Quroe Looks extremely fun!

@Tumbles Leave a comment on this (and possibly the other) Contestant market with your @ handle to signify that you're interested. It's seems like you're popular.

@Quroe forgive me if it's obvious, but I couldn't find the payout matrix?

@deagol Oops

I can also add you on if you're unable to pay for adding to the market. Like @Tumbles . Will update description with that rule later.

@Tumbles Comment yourself in if you want to accept that sponsorship.

Since I, as host, control the payout of the bounty pot, theoretically I could enforce the idea that a share of Tumbles's winnings could come to me via some sort of profit sharing agreement, and the rest of the winnings could go to whatever account Tumbles chooses.

I could sponsor Tumbles's ante with a loan.

I could even declare that some or all of the loan be forgiven in a Steal-Steal scenario.

@crowlsyong , the RISK calculator for Tumbles utterly breaks down for him. What would a C_100 policy for 10k mana cost under these conditions? All parties should ask for clarifications.

Note: 50% of the pot goes to the Host in a Share-Forfeit scenario.

@Quroe I will be willing to offer a C_100 policy on a hypothetical loan of 10k mana to Tumbles for this ante at a price of 9,000 mana

Let the bidding war commence! Any lower bids?

Or would anybody else be willing to sponsor him?

@Quroe It would cost... a lot haha (+M17,200). Bohaska's offer is much better. Not sure if I can sponsor Tumbles right now, but maybe...

@Quroe I'd offer the same C_100 policy for 8,500 mana.

@evan For how long will this offer be extended? Do I have an option play?

Additionally, if I accept this policy, and you fail to pay it if I exercise it, would that be considered a debt not honored for your debt ledger here?

(I am still shopping for lower bids.)

Also, consider you're playing with quite the X factor. I still haven't locked in what the Twist will be. That happens when the show starts.

That being said, I think I have something in mind for it already.

@Quroe
1. I'll keep the offer open until 11:59 PM Pacific Time on June 5th (the day before Manifest). You’ll have the right to exercise this insurance up until the deadline, meaning if you choose to lock in the policy, you just need to let me know by then.

2. I don't think I would resolve it YES if I failed to pay you insurance, since that market is specifically about loan repayments. But I consider it pretty unlikely, since I’m confident I’ll have the funds.

3. My 8,500 mana C_100 policy still stands. A twist is exactly what makes this game exciting!

@Quroe I'll offer a C_100 policy on the 10k mana loan, also open until 11:59 PM Pacific Time on June 5th, at 8,250 mana

@Quroe C100 at 7500 mana

@100Anonymous This offer is tentative and may be removed anytime

Keep in mind that I'm looking for some sort of collateral to prove that I will have my policy paid out if I exercise it. I need faith.

@Quroe BANK will pay out anything that I can't pay.

@100Anonymous Oh my goodness! I didn't know this existed!

Okay, we can talk. Explain the plan in more detail.

@Quroe 7500 mana as a cost for C100 insurance. If debt is sold, any lost potential mana will be refunded (e.g. if you sell it for 5k mana, I will pay back 5k mana)

@100Anonymous Let me make sure we are talking about the same thing here.

Let's say, hypothetically and for the sake of argument, I loan Tumbles 10k mana, he gives me the expectation that he will pay me back his signature king's ransom for it by some deadline, and I pay you the premium, 7.5k mana in this scenario, to insure that loan fully.

Tumbles gets fully betrayed in the game show and walks away with nothing. He is unable to pay me back what he owes me by my loan's deadline.

I exercise my policy with you. You pay me back 10k mana, correct?

@Quroe yes, through bank.

@Quroe You can also sell your loan and I will refund the remaining amount.

Explain that process.

@Quroe Say you lend tumbles 10k mana. Let's look at 3 scenarios:
A. You get the loan amount back. In this case, I keep 50% insurance fees.
B. You sell the debt for any particular amount (e.g. 5k mana). In this case, I refund whatever potential mana you have lost up to 7000 mana.
C. Tumbles doesn't pay you back. Then I refund 10k mana through BANK.

@100Anonymous So if I sell the security of the debt while it's in collections to somebody else for 1 mana, you would pay me 9,999 mana immediately, and the person I sell the loan to has the expectation that Tumbles owes them whatever the loan's maturity value was?

@Quroe Up to 7000 mana. This is precisely to prevent such things. This also applies if you ask tumbles to default deliberately (note that you have to publicly ask, I don't want to cheat you out of your insurance).

@100Anonymous Presumably, this loan would be put on Tumbles's financial complex, so there would be a whole slew of ramifications if he fails to pay it back.

@Quroe Well, we'll see what happens.

@100Anonymous So if I sold the debt security for 3k mana, you would pay me 7k mana?

@Quroe yes

@100Anonymous Your BANK only has 4.2k mana in it, and you currently have 777 mana in your balance. I don't see the collateral necessary to back this policy, currently. What am I missing here?

@Quroe Remember that 7500 is the insurance fee

@100Anonymous Okay, good point.

@100Anonymous

A. You get the loan amount back. In this case, I keep 50% insurance fees.

You would pay me back half of the policy premium if the loan is repaid in time?

@Quroe yes

@100Anonymous Write up an agreement/contract for my review. That being said, I'm still shopping for a lower premium rate. I'm not agreeing to this yet, to be clear.

@Quroe This insurance deal with @100Anonymous covers 100% of @Quroe's loan to @Tumbles. The insurance is paid out under the following:
@Quroe Initially pays a 7500 mana insurance fee. Our insurance covers 3 scenarios:
A. @Tumbles pays the loan in full. If this is the case, 50% of the insurance fee will be returned.
B. The loan is partially repaid/sold for a fraction of its value. In this scenario, the remaining amount will be covered, up to 7000 mana.
C. @Tumbles does not pay the loan back.. Here, the 10,000 mana is given to @Quroe, but the insurance fee remains with @100Anonymous, with the exception that if @Quroe publicly asks @Tumbles to default, only 7000 mana will be covered.
Acknowledged by @100Anonymous.

@100Anonymous Also, consider how, if I follow through with this as it stands, I will have almost no capital to leverage during the game show. I'd be down 27.5k mana at the starting gate. Currently, this is almost certainly untenable for me. It might be worth asking if anybody else would be willing to take this offer to sponsor/loan Tumbles on to the show.

I still need to put up the Contestant Choice markets, so I have a few expenses I need to make still, and I'm not planning on liquidating my positions anywhere.

@Quroe no, you'll be down 17000 mana (insurance), from which you get 20000 mana back.

@100Anonymous Consider the timeline of things. I need to ante 10k mana for myself as host. I would theoretically put in 10k mana for Tumbles in this scenario, and put up 7.5k mana for the policy premium. 10k+10k+7.5k = 27.5k.

Check my profile balance, currently, and see the problem.

@Quroe NVM, got it.

@Quroe Why not start with 2k deposit for all? This would make things only about 5500

@100Anonymous Because spectacle.

@100Anonymous If you want to profiteer on this venture, consider finding a partner with deeper pockets than me.

@Quroe Ok.