Will Brian Caplan write a detailed and rigorous protocol or incentive scheme to improve upon tenure?
resolved Jan 2

I feel like he stays in a popsci / blogger register, kvetching. Presumably as an economist he's primally outraged at the major design Ls that led to tenure being a scam and could jot down a bunch of plausibly better protocols or incentive schematics given 30 minutes and a whiteboard, a paper fit for submission (if not acceptance) to a metascience or mechanism design journal given three weeks.

Resolves to yes if he writes a paper of at least 4 pages and makes minimal effort to get metascience or institution design professionals to take it seriously / "peer review" it even if it's not the literal formal venue's peer review system that contains a detailed and rigorous design of researcher hiring and firing. It can be very pie in the sky and does not need a theory of change. I will use my subjective judgment. No I do not know off the top of my head know enough about metascience or economics to name venues or peer reviewers, but I'll send 10M managrams to people who make suggestions (don't just halfassedly google, have an inside view of upsides and downsides of each venue you nominate). Resolves no at market close otherwise.

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Can you enlighten us as to what made you uncertain of the outcome when you made the market?

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