Resolution criteria

The market resolves based on the total dollar amount of bonus payments distributed by the FDA to drug reviewers during calendar year 2026, under the program described below, as announced by the FDA or disclosed in official agency reports or budget documents. Resolution will be determined by official FDA announcements, Congressional budget reports, credible news reporting, or Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) disclosures documenting actual payments made. If the program is cancelled or suspended before year-end, the market resolves to the amount paid through the cancellation date. Any payments made in future years, even if for work performed in 2026, do not count. If in my opinion it is impossible to determine even an approximate amount from public data, the market will resolve NA.

Background

According to recent reports, the FDA plans to offer bonus payments to agency drug reviewers who complete their work ahead of schedule, with the first quarterly bonus payments starting around August 2026. See, for example, https://apnews.com/article/drugs-fda-review-bonus-payments-makary-af17b24723035e3e6e2eefdfea694808.