Which of the listed planned or announced products/innovations be available for consumer purchase LAST?
Each answer resolves to a percent:
0% - First product to be available
1% - Next product
[...]
100% - Product on this list that is available last, or not at all.
To count as being available to consumers a product must:
Be purchasable in reasonably small quantities by a private individual (so company-only 100k+ orders don't count)
Not be a custom-order or on-demand-only item. I.e. a billionaire buying a spaceship today (Feb 2024) doesn't count, since that would require a custom order/contract. It must be something that you, me, or your friends with sufficient funds could go online, to a store, or pick up a phone and buy.
Must be obtained by consumers (pre-orders don't count until they are delivered)
Can be a part of a larger product, so long as the item in question is a "substantial" part of the larger product. For example: solid state battery would resolve YES if an EV with a solid state battery became available. A good way to judge if it is "substantial" or not is whether or not the innovation/specific feature is a marketing point for the larger item.
Items that are already available at the time of this market's creation (Feb 19 2024) will be N/A'd. Items that could not reasonably be available to consumers before 2050 will be N/A'd (warp drive, time machine, nuclear bomb, etc).
Please add your own answers! If you're a new trader (2 or fewer months on Manifold) I will reimburse the cost of adding one answer. Just DM me!
I will not participate in this market.
As always feel free to discuss, question, or disagree with my resolution criteria in the comments.
If anyone wants a slightly shorter-term market for the nuclear battery: https://manifold.markets/Retr0id/will-the-bv100-nuclearpowered-batte
@8Kraken8 Except it's an open market where people can add their own answers. It's just like this market