Will Lemonade (LMND) report Q4 2023 Gross Loss Ratio lower than 80%?
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resolved Feb 27
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YES

Loss ratio is used in the insurance industry, representing the ratio of losses (mainly paid insurance claims) to premiums earned. Gross loss ratio doesn't include operating expenses.

Lemonade is expected to report Q4 results including the loss ratio by the end of February (the exact date was not announced yet). The figure will be published in the Letter to Shareholders here: https://investor.lemonade.com/

The gross loss ratio for the last four quarters (Q4 2022 to Q3 2023) was: 89%, 87%, 94%, and 83%.

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The earnings are scheduled for February 27. I expect the loss ratio to be in the range of 70% to 79% (my 60% confidence interval, midpoint 75%).

Several large insurance companies such as Progressive ($PGR) or Travelers ($TRV) already reported Q4 with very good loss ratios, and with low impact of catastrophic weather events (so called CATs).

Furthermore Lemonade's loss ratio should improve because more rate increases is being approved by the regulators. (In the US insurance rate increases must be generally approved by the regulator, which causes delays in reaching adequate rates especially in the periods of high inflation. Luckily inflation is coming down.)

The Gross Loss Ratio might be lower than one might expect only based on extrapolating previous quarters.

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