Will Lemonade stock ($LMND) close above $21.50 on March 15?

Question

That is Friday March 15, 2024.

Will be resolved according to https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LMND/

Lemonade is a fintech company that offers a range of insurance products, including homeowners, renters, pet, and life insurance, using artificial intelligence to enhance service efficiency. The company is expected to report its Q4 earnings on Tuesday, February 27.

This question is mostly about predicting the Q4 results and the subsequent reaction of the market. It could be influenced also by other factors such as the general market movements, or even by some catastrophic weather events (however that's unlikely in such a short time period).

The $21.50 price:

is about 20% upside from last Friday close of $17.90.

is above the current break-even price of March 15 CALL options with strike price of $20

would represent breaking of the current 3-year downtrend when looking at the stock price chart (technical analysis)

Creator policy: I will bet max Ṁ50 in total. (I'm mostly interested in opinions of others.)

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Mar 15, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.