Background

The 2027 Rugby World Cup will be hosted by Australia, marking their third time hosting the tournament. Based on current betting odds and recent performances, New Zealand (+250) and South Africa (+300) are considered the favorites, followed by France (+550) and host nation Australia (+650).

As of early 2024, 12 teams have already qualified for the tournament: Australia (hosts), New Zealand, South Africa, France, England, Ireland, Wales, Argentina, Fiji, Italy, Georgia, and Japan. Eight spots remain to be filled through regional qualifiers.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on the two teams that compete in the 2027 Rugby World Cup Final match. For each option:

• Resolves YES if the team participates in the final match

• Resolves NO if the team does not reach the final match

• Resolves N/A if:

  • The 2027 Rugby World Cup is cancelled or postponed beyond 2028

  • The tournament format is changed such that there is no single final match

  • A team withdraws from the tournament before it begins

Considerations

• Host nation advantage: Australia has historically performed better when hosting, reaching the final in 2003

• South Africa is attempting to win an unprecedented third consecutive World Cup

• Team compositions may change significantly by 2027, with several current star players likely to retire

• Recent rule changes and evolving playing styles could impact traditional powerhouse teams' effectiveness

• Weather conditions in Australia typically favor teams with strong running games over those relying on tactical kicking