Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the EUR/USD exchange rate as of December 31, 2025, at 23:59 UTC. The official rate published by the European Central Bank (ECB) on January 1, 2026, will be used for resolution. The ECB's exchange rates are available at https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/index.en.html.

Background

The EUR/USD exchange rate reflects the value of one euro in terms of US dollars. It is influenced by various factors, including monetary policies of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve, economic indicators, geopolitical events, and market sentiment.

As of July 27, 2025, the EUR/USD rate is approximately 1.1664. Forecasts for the end of 2025 vary among analysts:

• BNP Paribas projects the rate to reach 1.15 by December 2025. (currencynews.co.uk)

• Nordea has raised its end-2025 forecast to 1.20 from a previous estimate of 1.14. (currencynews.co.uk)

• Wells Fargo anticipates the rate will decline to 0.9800 by the end of 2025. (naga.com)

These projections highlight differing expectations based on economic conditions and policy decisions.

Considerations

Traders should monitor key factors that could influence the EUR/USD rate by the end of 2025:

• Monetary Policies: Decisions by the ECB and the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates and quantitative easing can significantly impact the exchange rate.

• Economic Indicators: GDP growth, inflation rates, and employment data from both the Eurozone and the US are critical.

• Geopolitical Events: Trade policies, political stability, and international relations can cause fluctuations in currency values.

Staying informed about these factors will aid in making more accurate predictions for this market.