Will Joe Biden get impeached in his first term?
Oct 2
If the House of Representatives of the United States approves articles of impeachment against the President of the United States before the end of Joe Biden's first term in office, this market will be resolved as “Yes”. This market does not consider the possibility of a process of impeachment being conducted after Joe Biden has left office or finished his first presidential term, even if he gets re-elected for a second term.
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GOP house members tried to impeach the homeland security secretary, but failed. Votes were 214-216, which is higher than I would have expected. So, mixed signals regarding GOP's ability to impeach people.

@nottelling2ccc That vote failed because Steve Scalise was having cancer treatment, and Republicans managed to successfully impeach Mayorkas on a second attempt with a 1-vote majority. On the other hand, Democrats flipped NY-3 in a special election. I think the margin with impeaching Biden is just too tight (3 Republicans voting against is enough to block it), though they’d probably do it if they had 5 more seats.


predicts YES

Betting this up a little because of 538 subtweeting this market for being undervalued a few days ago on their podcast. Personally I think there is a 20%+ chance that both parties just start impeaching as an election cycle maneuver until it loses all meaning.

predicts NO

@Panfilo It doesn’t lose meaning if the impeachment proceedings actually result in removal or being barred from office.

All the previous impeached presidents have been lucky so far, but if it truly becomes that common, someone’s going to be removed eventually.

predicts YES

@nottelling2ccc It’s not just luck. Impeachment is a simple majority vote in the House while removal requires a 2/3 majority in the Senate. A simple majority in the House will be against the President roughly half the time, while there hasn’t been a 2/3 control of the Senate since 1967. I can’t imagine that happening any time soon unless there’s a complete black swan event.



predicts YES

@Capresis They were ragequitting and throwing a number of markets into disarray; it had nothing to do with this market in specific.

bought Ṁ5 of YES


bought Ṁ96 YES
bought Ṁ230 NO from 16% to 15%

(just balancing the playing field, in response to @TommyGoldman)

god is not Great. May those adults who believe in ancient fairy tales receive no comeuppance (because it's uncool to wish comeuppance upon someone, whether they believe in fairy tales or not) as we rise to rational discourse and away from non-secular regression.

yo momma

Jesus Reaction GIF

bought Ṁ69 YES from 19% to 21%
predicts YES

@crowlsyong Let's have a discussion, not a childish attack on a poor, old, faithful man. Fact. Joe Biden is associated with criminals in his family and has sinned accordingly by continuing to shelter, encourage and enable their evil deeds and doings. Fact. Joe Biden is therefore an evil man. Fact. Joe Biden should be impeached as he cannot be trusted to govern America if his house is not in order. Fact. You are but a child raised without religion and moral compass, the true deprecation of American values.

predicts YES

@TommyGoldman it's a good point that nobody could accuse Trump of being faithful.

predicts NO

@TommyGoldman I meant no attack, I apologize. May you be well.

predicts YES

@TommyGoldman Well, I believe there is absolutely 0 reason to impeach Biden, and to punish him for the things his son did BUT I think Republican are cynical enough to push, rush and vote an impeachment during the 2024 presidential election, and now we know they very very likely have the vote for it in the House, and this option in CLEARLY under-evaluated at 14% imho.

predicts NO

@Laroussi Perhaps, but that would cause an insane amount of cognitive dissonance, even for these folks. Right now, their rationale for going forward with the investigation is along the lines of "we're going to do some investigation and see where the facts lead us." My guess is that they're going to drag out the investigation for as long as possible, all while harping on about how he's currently being investigated and how there was "lots of evidence of crime that happened" (that was committed by his son.)

Remember, this is the same party that took the better part of a month to re-elect a new speaker after ousting the old one. Yes, they're cynical and all, but it's much easier to justify an investigation than to vote for an impeachment. I'd put 14% as maybe a little high, though within the right ballpark.

predicts YES

@nottelling2ccc Oooh, I disagree much. Their rationale is not "seeing where the facts" lead them, the republican rep. who don't believe in this know there is just no facts to find, and those who believe Biden should be impeached don't care about them and they'll 'create' those facts anyway.

Their rationale is, in jail or not, Trump will be the 2024 republican candidate and they need and want Biden to appear corrupt and bad, they want to use this impeachment as a campaign argument against him, and they do it because Trump want that, he's furious the House impeached him twice, and he wants that to happen to Biden.

What is left of moderate republican rep. aren't searching for any truth : they absolutely already know there is no truth to find, and them voting to formalize the impeachment inquiry is an acceptation of this strategy and of Trump's dominance in the party.

Their only victory is -> no shutdown/deliberate chaos, and no Jim Jordan - but honestly Johnson is almost as bad, just less known - and even those small victories, they'll pay them dearly.

predicts NO

@TommyGoldman what did i just read

predicts YES

@robotfactory don't feed the trolls

bought Ṁ5 of YES

God is great and sends us the joys of the Christmas spirit. May those who do not believe get their comeuppance as we rise to the heavens and away from the evil spirit of Biden and his crime family, devil incarnates.

4 traders bought Ṁ379 NO
2 traders bought Ṁ353 YES
predicts YES
bought Ṁ1 YES at 13%
predicts YES

House Republicans voted Wednesday to formalize an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden as their investigation reaches a critical juncture and right-wing pressure grows.


predicts NO

@AaronBreckenridge the issue is how long impeachment takes. right now isn't a good time to do it. it takes years. if you're going to do it. you do it as soon as the person gets reelected.

predicts YES

@JosephMartinjr3rdcoyote they may not have the House by the time he gets re-elected.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

This seems bullish to me, I get the sense that if the freedom caucus can't get their shutdown they might demand that they get to impeach Biden.

Both are just vehicles for them to get some news coverage for their speeches, and after Johnson bypassed them for the shutdown he can't afford to annoy them too much IMO.

bought Ṁ100 YES from 13% to 17%

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