Will Joe Biden get impeached in his first term?
If the House of Representatives of the United States approves articles of impeachment against the President of the United States before the end of Joe Biden's first term in office, this market will be resolved as “Yes”. This market does not consider the possibility of a process of impeachment being conducted after Joe Biden has left office or finished his first presidential term, even if he gets re-elected for a second term.
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JosephMartinjr3rdcoyote avatar
Joseph Martin jr 3rd (coyote)predicts NO

@AaronBreckenridge the issue is how long impeachment takes. right now isn't a good time to do it. it takes years. if you're going to do it. you do it as soon as the person gets reelected.

AaronBreckenridge avatar
Aaron Breckenridgepredicts YES

@JosephMartinjr3rdcoyote they may not have the House by the time he gets re-elected.

Joshua avatar
Joshuabought Ṁ50 of YES

This seems bullish to me, I get the sense that if the freedom caucus can't get their shutdown they might demand that they get to impeach Biden.

Both are just vehicles for them to get some news coverage for their speeches, and after Johnson bypassed them for the shutdown he can't afford to annoy them too much IMO.

Gabrielle avatar
Gabrielle bought Ṁ100 YES from 13% to 17%
Gabrielle avatar
Gabriellebought Ṁ200 of YES

It looks like Johnson can get things done in the house, pushes my guess on his ability up.

Gen avatar
Genzybought Ṁ444 of NO

Old guy pushed this through without the votes. New guy won’t proceed. Either the R’s repeat the speaker election shitshow or the impeachment is dead.

nottelling2ccc avatar
not telling bought Ṁ12 NO at 15%
FrederickNorris avatar
Frederick Norrispredicts NO

@Gen New guy may need to appease the loonies. Not sure if the new guy is full loon, or just half.

VerySeriousPoster avatar

@Gen yeah, this is convincing. I was surprised the conference was unified in the vote to put Johnson in the chair and overcorrected to assume they'd fall together for an impeachment push.

VerySeriousPoster avatar
VerySeriousPosterpredicts YES

I'm not sure what ideas unite the house gop (I very wrongly predicted they wouldn't reach a consensus for speaker without reaching across the aisle)... but hatred for Biden might be it. They might not all think impeachment is strategically wise, but if it comes to a vote, it's hard to imagine many will be happy to tout a nay vote in their next primary. And if McCarthy was willing to pull the impeachment lever, Johnson probably will too.

There's obviously a lot of confounding factors that could make this not happen (no impeachment is the default after all). Less than ten votes could tank this. I'd place the odds below 50%... but 17% seems worth the lotto.

VerySeriousPoster avatar
VerySeriousPostersold Ṁ26 of YES
TommyGoldman avatar
Tommy Goldmanpredicts YES

May a true "impeachment" come for the souls of the Biden crime gestapo and Kamala cult to cleanse our America of the sinners who fail us on the journey of faith and salvation. Lord, please grant us the strong leadership of Mike Johnson, may he grace us with the holy world we seek so we can be forever cleansed of sins and be brought to almighty heaven in the rapture. May all the souls betting NO be forgiven, they know not what they do, for they are sinners lost in a world corrupted by the very worst of evil spirits, Democrats, rationalists, EA believers and Destiny subscribers. May they be guided to see the light before it is too late for them. God Bless America.

BeachFgz avatar

@TommyGoldman So true brother

nottelling2ccc avatar
not tellingpredicts NO


Oh no…

VerySeriousPoster avatar
VerySeriousPosterpredicts YES

@nottelling2ccc FACT: you should always make predictions based solely on what you want to happen. Optimism bias means your opinion is nigh-infallible and all your dreams will come true. When evidence contradicts you, it's only to test your resolve.

OloladeHamzat avatar
Ololade Hamzatbought Ṁ10 of NO

If Donald Trump was not impeached in his first tenure, even when the proceedings, on his impeachment had strong evidence. The first impeachment in December 2019 was on "Abuse of power & obstruction of congress" and the second in January 2021, was on the charges of "incitement of insurrection" related to mob storming U.S, capitol. The retaliation by the Republicans in trying to impeach Biden was due to the allegation that the President benefitted from his son's business dealings, without strong evidence. Even the Forensic accountant who was brought out as a witness testified that he couldn't identify any fraud. Any other impeachment proceedings without strong evidence will not fly.

Mirek avatar
Quantum Gamblerbought Ṁ51 of NO

@OloladeHamzat I'm sorry, what are you saying for it here?

ViplavTandon avatar
Viplav Tandonpredicts NO

Gabrielle avatar
Gabriellepredicts YES

@ViplavTandon Who wrote that? They’re claiming that no president has ever been impeached, but that’s not true - for the most immediate example, Trump was impeached twice.

Gabrielle avatar
Gabriellebought Ṁ22 of YES

If anyone’s interested, I just put up M$3,000 of YES orders at 20% - that’s M$15,000 you can bet NO against me!

I have more at lower percentages as well.

Gen avatar
Genzypredicts NO

@Gabrielle Give it a week, I might take them :)

Gabrielle avatar
Gabriellepredicts YES

@becauseyoudo Not at all! McCarthy knows that now that they’ve started impeachment inquiries, they have to impeach Biden. If they don’t follow through, it shows that Biden is innocent, while before the start of the inquiry he seemed to at least be somewhat guilty to moderate voters. That’s a disaster for their chances in the presidential election. McCarthy and his fellow more moderate Republicans care about that a lot.

becauseyoudo avatar
becauseyoudobought Ṁ100 of NO

@Gabrielle Lets say McCarthy is on board, it would still requires 50% of the House to vote in favor of the articles of impeachment and I'm not sure his party is "united" enough to pull off a frivolous impeachment. The MAGA wing would look pretty weak if they couldn't pass articles of impeachment and that might be enough of a reason for some moderates to vote NO. My bet is on party infighting and the median voter theorem.

nottelling2ccc avatar
not tellingpredicts NO

@becauseyoudo And now that McCarthy is out, I don’t think the impeachment proceedings are going anywhere. Congress will have to work overtime just to nominate a speaker and avoid another shutdown.

becauseyoudo avatar
becauseyoudopredicts NO

@nottelling2ccc I'm not so sure. I really think McCarthy was trying to serve as "responsible" leadership for his party. I can only imagine the infighting will continue but Republicans are probably more desperate than ever to distract from their own disfunction.

Gabrielle avatar
Gabriellepredicts YES

@nottelling2ccc There’s a whole year more for this to happen. I’m assuming that picking a new speaker won’t take quite that long.