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Their front page hasn't been updated yet, but the dataset here shows 0.89°C for 2022.

Although it is pointing to NO, awaiting final data prior to resolution to resolve using my criteria in the description.

<1% top 5

NOAA after October data: <0.1% chance of warmest, <2% chance of top 5

<0.1% according to NOAA after September data

@StevenK Starting from NOAA's graph, I made a visualization of what a positive resolution would have to look like:

There are minor differences between datasets, but I can't see them mattering.

@StevenK Oops, I misinterpreted the y axis as giving the temperature in each month instead of the average temperature from January through each month. My visualization is wrong. For a positive resolution, the black graph only has to catch up with the orange graph. This is harder than it looks, because it averages over increasingly many months as the year goes on, so each additional month has less of an impact. I still think the probability of a positive resolution is near zero.