What will be the party of the next President of the United States?
41
471
แน€1k
Nov 6
50%
Democrat
49%
Republican
0.4%
Other

The next presidential election of the United States of America is set to happen on November 5th of 2024. The party from which the elected president is shall be considered the winning outcome of this market. For the sake of this question, a president is considered to be from a specific party when: A) he/she is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with such party, or B) he/she has publicly stated an intention to caucus with such party.

Duplicate of this old market, with new question mechanics:

https://manifold.markets/Predictor/what-will-be-the-party-of-the-next

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bought แน€25 of Republican YES

Appears Trump lead is widening in traditional betting markets. Can anyone explain the why Manifold sees a Dem win significantly more likely?

bought แน€5 of Other YES

@dezzao maybe manifold has more liberal user base.

@FedorShabashev Yeah, I think this is the reason it is out of alignment with most other polls / markets. If true, surprising for a website explicitly about forecasting. I would have imagined the user base would be more aware of their bias.

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