This question explores the plausible implausibility of modern diplomacy and avian ambition. Should a duck (real or symbolic) take office anywhere in the world before any form of toaster (conventional, smart, or rebellious) gains NATO membership—this resolves YES. Resolves NO if the toaster beats the duck, or if neither joins anything. Resolves at Poobah’s discretion, potentially involving ceremonial bread.
Update 2025-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to user feedback, the creator has confirmed a change to the resolution criteria. The market will no longer resolve to NO if the close date passes and neither event has occurred. The market will instead remain open until one of the conditions is met.
1,000Resolves NO [...] if neither joins anything. Resolves at Poobah’s discretion
Closing date: July 18
If the market was set to remain open until one or the other happens, then it seem virtually guaranteed to resolve yes, since various other animals have been elected to mayoral positions in western countries as a joke, while NATO has never remotely entertained such. But the resolution criteria and very soon closing date suddenly make it virtually guaranteed to resolve no instead. As a result the market is potentially very misleading to traders.
I would highly recommend either editing the title to "Will a duck be elected to public office before July 18 (or before a toaster joins NATO if sooner)?", or editing the description to remove the bit about resolving no if neither joins and extending the close date to 2100.
@PoobahSays Recommended resolution source (assuming edits are not reversed):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_animals_in_political_office