Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by July end, 2025, credible reports from reputable news organizations confirm that Israel has attempted to assassinate Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa. An assassination attempt is defined as a deliberate action by Israeli state actors aimed at killing al-Sharaa. The market will resolve to "No" if no such reports are available by the specified date.

Background

Ahmed al-Sharaa, formerly known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, became Syria's president in January 2025 after leading the insurgency that toppled Bashar al-Assad. His past affiliations with al-Qaeda and subsequent leadership of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham have made him a contentious figure in regional politics. (reuters.com)

Israel has a history of conducting targeted assassinations against individuals it perceives as threats. In May 2025, Israeli airstrikes targeted areas near al-Sharaa's presidential palace in Damascus, which Israeli officials described as a direct message to the Syrian regime following sectarian violence involving the Druze minority. (ft.com)

Considerations

While Israel has conducted airstrikes near al-Sharaa's residence, there have been no confirmed reports of direct assassination attempts by Israel against him as of July 16, 2025. However, al-Sharaa has reportedly survived at least two assassination attempts attributed to jihadist groups, including the Islamic State, who oppose his governance. (today.lorientlejour.com)

The market's resolution depends on verifiable reports of an Israeli attempt on al-Sharaa's life. Traders should monitor developments in Israeli-Syrian relations and any emerging intelligence or news reports indicating such actions.