Too much US hardware on its way to Middle East right now.

Iran knows the US is too scared to actually do anything due to their election calendar. The US is insanely desperate for deescalation, ironically making escalation more likely.

Sure, yet that will make them think a tad, so not before 14-Aug.

@YvesBasquet They have already delayed for 2 weeks (presumably due to the Olympics). Russia waited until after Winter Olympics ended to invade Ukraine too.

That's a good point ! Don't you think Masoud Pezeshkian election as president ia another reason for delaying a decision to attack or not ?

@YvesBasquet I think today is a possible date because it's Tisha b'Av. The president has not much power over the affairs in Iran, Khamenei and IRGC both want to attack while the President doesn't, so the former overrules.

I guess at the end what prevails is Masoud Pezeshkian moderation. Yes, Iran needs to retaliate to not loose the face, no he doesn't want to antagonize Israel to force them to escalate and retaliate again.

I guess we'll have an missiles and drones attack, most taken down by Israel and the US, a few hitting targets in Israel. And that will be it.

Israel can't let it go unretaliated again. We can't let Iran learn that they can bomb Israel with no pushback whenever they feel like it.

(The US could also get a lot of benefit from a de facto free shot at Iran - destroying their nuclear facilities or factories making missiles for the Russians to use on Ukraine would be pretty nice - but I've despaired of the Biden admin being able to take advantage of opportunities).

Israel has its hands full with Gaza and Hezbollah. They don't want more on their plate, moreover with the internal protest against this war policy the government is following.

Why would you want to upset Iran by bombing their nuclear facilities? What's the benefit ? You don't want a war in the Middle East, that would be counterproductive. Iran is a complex country, yet I believe you need to give Masoud Pezeshkian a chance.

I guess the best way currently the US have to help Ukraine is by removing any restrictions on the usage of US weapons ; and then if you know how to fly an F-16, get a contract down there !

Hezbollah and Gaza are both, in the end, Iranian proxies. Adding direct bombings by Iran to them with no retaliation would be bad (allowing Gaza free rein to bomb Israel without retaliation is how things got so bad with them too). You don't get peace by being a pushover.

(Compare Yemen, that spent a year trying to bomb Israel. When they finally succeeded, Israel hit them back, and they haven't hit Israel again since).

From America's perspective, giving Ukraine weapons is nice but destroying your enemy's production capacity helps a lot more (especially on a per cost basis).

My gym cancelled evening classes today, they know something

it's because of 9 באב

General note that "next 72 hours" is a bad description since it's not clear when you start counting, "by time X" is better.

People can always check the closing time

Sure it's solvable, it's just suboptimal to force people to check the fine print.

I've added the description

Upgraded to basic!

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