Will Trump post the linked market on his Twitter or truth Social account without realizing it's a conditional?
Basic
4
Ṁ899
resolved Nov 5
Resolved
NO

The market above was originally created as a "Who will win the election?" market, but it's a regular multiple choice, not free response, and it didn't include an "Other" option. The creator did not foresee that Kamala Harris could end up being the Democratic nominee, so she isn't an option, meaning it will resolve N/A if she wins. Since Trump is now the only viable candidate who is an option in the market, he's rated as 94%, since he is basically certain to win, conditional on one of the options winning.

Trump has a tendency to post polls and betting markets that are favorable to him on his social media accounts. Will he post the market above on Truth Social or X, mistakenly believing it to be unconditional?

The market resolves YES if he posts a link or screenshot of it before Election Day, and does not acknowledge anywhere in the post that it's a conditional market, or that the probability is essentially meaningless.

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maybe if the title was different... right now it's sort of obvious

all in on NO cause I think he'll post it knowing it's conditional

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