Will this market's probability ever go below 1%?
58
1.1kṀ50kresolved Apr 17
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Based on the displayed value
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ386 | |
| 2 | Ṁ162 | |
| 3 | Ṁ115 | |
| 4 | Ṁ104 | |
| 5 | Ṁ82 |
People are also trading
Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2026? (Experimental market structure; 99% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)
98% chance
Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2035? (Experimental market structure; 99% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)
48% chance
Sort by:
@CalebDitchfield It displays decimals for small values. Try entering 462000 into the NO bet field right now and you’ll see the preview go below 1%
@Dreamingpast I don't think so. The largest limit orders are for Ṁ1000. If one gets filled and then this resolves YES, even assuming the person with the order hasn't bought any NO shares or sold any YES shares early, they make 99K in profit, not even a tenth of what that market requires.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2026? (Experimental market structure; 99% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)
98% chance
Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2035? (Experimental market structure; 99% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)
48% chance