Using the exact percentages (as opposed to the rounded ones displayed by Manifold), I will calculate the total time during which the market is above 50% and the total time it is below 50% and resolve to whichever side had the market in their favor the longest. Times when the market is at exactly 50% will not count towards either side.
This is another variant of average-based markets, except that I am not using a real average this time. It is in some ways the opposite of this one (/JosephNoonan/will-the-average-log-odds-of-this-m), since it gives no extra benefit to a team that brings the probability to extreme values, while that one is designed to benefit a team extra for bringing the market to extreme values.
1,000
3.00@deagol Oh yeah, I've been busy lately and haven't been able to provide updates regularly. The current time above 50% is 140.8 h, and the time below 50% is 2.1 h. It has only been exactly equal to 50% for about 2 minutes in total. If it stays above 50% for the next 3 h, it's a done deal.