Will the average log odds of this market be positive?
Basic
9
Ṁ12k
resolved May 7
Resolved
YES

After this market closes, I will calculate the time-weighted arithmetic mean of the log odds of the market, that is, of ln(p/(1-p)), where p is the market's probability. I will use the exact probabilities, not the rounded ones displayed by Manifold.

This is like "The Market", except that it puts higher weight on extreme probabilities, with the weight being proportional to how difficult it is to hold the market at that probability (in terms of the relative price of YES and NO shares). Therefore, it makes it "worth it" to hold the market at such extreme probabilities.

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predictedYES 1y
current average: 0.943332693752979
   as a probability: 0.7197723542040516
Future average required for tie: -1.0253354498229128
   as a probability: 0.2639894233452379
predictedYES 1y

@JosephNoonan Plankton for all the baby whales birthed by WvM

predictedYES 1y

@deagol Given that it's based on log-odds, though, the time it spends at the current percentage counts for much more than the time it spent at lower percentages. So the required average could be getting much lower soon.

predictedNO 1y

This market is immoral, it should be resolved to N/A to avoid gambling addiction. 👿

predictedYES 1y

@levifinkelstein I think it should go into pseudo-random closing to prevent sniping, then resolve when a dogecoin block gets mined with a hashtag ending with “zz”

1y
current average: 0.5989925388753334
   as a probability: 0.6454257811891465
Future average required for tie: -0.23698380452324022
   as a probability: 0.441029778027362
predictedYES 1y

I made the opposite of this market

predictedYES 1y

The log-odds function has maximum curvature at 20.36% and 79.64%, and perhaps passing those would act as tipping points for the average collapsing to zero or 100%? Just throwing ideas out there.

predictedYES 1y

technically those are local minimum/maximum between 0 and 1

predictedYES 1y

@deagol The market has already gone past both of those points but for such a short time that I don't think it affected the average by much (plus, it spiked in both directions, so they partially cancel each other out). If the whole average went past either of those points, I imagine it would be pretty hard for the other team to recover, though it might actually be slightly easier, given that they can in theory push the odds high/low enough to completely negate the other team's advantage in an arbitrarily small amount of time.

predictedYES 1y

@JosephNoonan yea I’m responsible for both those spikes, just wanted to see the effect on the avg (but risky to hold it longer than a few seconds)

predictedYES 1y

@deagol Did you have to buy through limit orders to cause those spikes, or had none been placed at the time?

predictedYES 1y

@JosephNoonan there were none

1y

I think people here have a YES bias. Turns out the avg of this and the geometric mean (in log form) is neutral at 1/ϕ=ϕ-1 which I like, so that’s where I’ve tried to set it. Makes perfect sense! :)

predictedYES 1y

@deagol I'm a bit confused about why you're trying to set it there. This market doesn't have anything to do with the geometric mean of the probability, only of the odds.

predictedYES 1y

@JosephNoonan c’mon it’s the golden ratio it must mean something! like, the pyramids and sunflowers!

(I’m just messin’ around)

predictedYES 1y

@JosephNoonan people will be subconsciously attracted to this magical ratio, and NO bettors will have a hard time fighting the power of ancient pyramids, the Parthenon, and Fibonacci’s lustful rabbits. You’ll see!

1y

ok upped to an even more magical number

1y

@deagol so Levina @levifinkelstein you seem averse to that magical mirrored-digits one. Ok fine, you prefer The Answer then?

@deagol What is The Answer? 😃

predictedNO 1y

@deagol Oh right, I get it!

1y

This is equivalent to "Will the geometric mean of the odds of this market be greater than 1?" That makes it a "proper" geometric mean market, as opposed to this one (https://manifold.markets/JosephNoonan/will-the-geometric-mean-of-this-mar), since the geometric mean is actually the proper mean to use for odds, whereas the arithmetic mean is the proper mean for probabilities.

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