Will there be more highly competitive states in 2024 than 2020?
Dec 1

For the purposes of this market, I will define a "highly competitive state" as any state where the final vote margin in the presidential general election is <5%. So in 2020, there were eight highly competitive states (Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, Michigan, and Florida). If there are nine or more in 2024, this market resolves YES, and otherwise it resolves NO. This market only counts the states, so if one of the Congressional districts with its own electoral votes ends up being highly competitive, it won't count towards the total.

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