Will the winner of ME-2 in the 2024 POTUS election win with a majority in the district?
4
16
Ṁ31Ṁ90
Dec 1
67%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will the candidate that wins Maine's second Congressional district get more than 50% of the first place votes in ME-2? Maines uses instant runoff voting, so this would resolve NO if the election in ME-2 goes to an instant runoff.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
If the Republican nominee wins ME-2, will they win the presidency (2024)?
48% chance
Will a Democrat win Maine's second district in the 2024 POTUS election?
20% chance
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry Maine's 2nd congressional district?
45% chance
Will the winner of the 2024 POTUS election win more than 25 states?
45% chance
Will the winner of Florida in the 2024 POTUS election win with a majority in the state?
63% chance
Will the candidate who wins Nebraska's second Congressional district win the 2024 POTUS election?
68% chance
Will the candidate who wins Maine's second Congressional district win the 2024 POTUS election?
50% chance
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential Election carry the state of Maine?
65% chance
[Metaculus] Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?
61% chance
Will the candidate who wins Michigan win the 2024 POTUS election?
72% chance