Each option is an election year and will resolve YES if the office of the President of the United States remains in existence continuously from now until Election Day in that year. If for some reason a presidential election has to be rescheduled so that it doesn't occur in the usual election year, I will still resolve based on when Election Day occurs in that year, rather than the actual date of the presidential election. However, if the presidential election is rescheduled to a different dare in the same year, I will resolve based on the new election date.
This market is solely based on the existence of the office of the U.S. presidency. If the office is vacant due to, e.g., some horrific event that kills the entire line of succession, that does not count for a NO resolution. A NO resolution would require that the U.S. government abolish the presidency, or that the current U.S. regime itself cease to exist.
1,000
3.00I think that AGI/ASI will wildly disrupt current political institutions. Conditioning on AGI being achieved in some year, I think it's around 10% likely that the US presidency no longer exists due to a pivotal act within 2 years of AGI. That's the main way non-ASI leads to a cessation of the presidency in my mind.
Given ASI (which is 1 month to 3 years after AGI), I think the presidency has an 80% chance of exponentially decaying with a half-life of 2 years.
This gives the following probabilities:
2028: 93.8%
2032: 80.3%
2036: 68.3%
2040: 58.7%
2044: 49.7%
2048: 45.8%
2052: 41.2%
2056: 37.1%
I bought down all of the probabilities to the average of the probabilities here and 100%, giving:
2028: 96.9%
2032: 90.15%
2036: 84.15%
2040: 79.35%
2044: 74.85%
2048: 72.9%
2052: 70.6%
2056: 68.55%
@Nikola How did you calculate these numbers? You stated the conditional probabilities based on the year AGI develops, but to calculate the overall probability, you also need the probability distribution for when AGI will develop. Based on the 80% probability you gave to 2032, I assume you must think it's very likely that the first AGI is built this decade.
@PlasmaBallin sorry, for AGI timelines I just took the metaculus date of AGI question (I actually took a log normal that approximates it)