Will "the market" be decided by at least 5%?

Meta-Forecasting•"The Market"

179

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Ṁ530

resolved Apr 3

Resolved

YES

ALL

"The market" is here:

If the average percentage of "the market" at close is <= 45% or >= 55%, then this market will resolve YES; otherwise, resolves NO.

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8 Comments

17 Holders

96 Trades

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predicted YES

As of the most recent update, the average has to be below ~41% or above ~87% for the remaining period in order for this to resolve YES. The former looks almost certain to happen.

predicted YES

It will probably end up below 40%

bought Ṁ20 of YES

@AlexRockwell I just made one for that as well:

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Now average is around 46.5. But it seems that NO will win, and if it will happen I am sure the average will be < 45.

sold Ṁ41 of YES

Now that it's currently deadlocked at just above 50%, with the average also being just above 50, this is becoming slightly less likely.

Based on the current status, the market would need to average either <35% or >55% for the rest of the time for this to resolve YES.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@Gabrielle But once the closure time gets closer, it will probably be clearer which side is going to win. I expect that the market will start to shift pretty far in one direction before it ends.