Will the final result of the Muon g-2 experiment at Fermilab and Brookhaven be at least 5 sigma?
9
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resolved Jun 4
Resolved
NO

Will the Muon g-2 experiment produce a 5 sigma result once all runs are completed and the data has been analyzed? Fermilab is expected to announce the final results at sometime in 2025, and intermediate results on August 10, 2023. Note that, if the intermediate result is >5 sigma, that won't resolve this YES because it's possible that the later runs reduce the significance slightly.

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The final results of Muon g-2 were released on Monday. They confirm the previous experimental results, including the intermediate result that was 5σ away from the original Standard Model calculation from 2020. However, the updated SM value from the Muon g-2 Theory Initiative released earlier this year agrees with the experimental results, so there is no longer a 5σ difference. The previous SM calculation appears to have been wrong, seemingly due to an error in previous experimental measurements of electron+positron→hadrons cross sections.

To head off the issues currently delaying the resolution of the run 1-3 market, what theory prediction will be used to resolve this market?

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