Will the day that the prisoner dies in my Unexpected Hanging Paradox markets be a surprise?
60
1.2kṀ78k
resolved Aug 22
Resolved
YES

I just made five markets for the Unexpected Hanging Paradox group that ask on what day the prisoner in the paradox will die. These will be resolved on August 21 - August 25, with one of them resolving to YES on the day the fictional prisoner dies, and the others resolving to NO.

/JosephNoonan/unexpected-hanging-paradox-will-the

/JosephNoonan/unexpected-hanging-paradox-will-the-b868b0ea1944

/JosephNoonan/unexpected-hanging-paradox-will-the-3ec27a5399f0

/JosephNoonan/unexpected-hanging-paradox-will-the-439dbd22774d

/JosephNoonan/unexpected-hanging-paradox-will-the-77d7ee47594c

This market resolves to YES if, on the day that the prisoner dies, the corresponding market is trading, on average, below 50% prior to resolution. I will be using midnight in the Central time zone as the cutoff between days.

At the request of a trader, I'm adding a sha256 hash of some text that reveals the answe (obviously, it's more than just stating the day, since then you could crack it in five guesses). No one will be able to tell what this is the hash of until resolution, but this will ensure that I can't change the day now that it's already decided.

3f75dc7c733335e5af1dcf7b90f384a16e6943e8e44bd95b7c4544185a7c04b3

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