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Haven't gotten an exact value for the average in a while, but it's clearly stayed below the amount needed to mathematically guarantee victory, based on previous averages, so I will resolve this to YES now.

Currently, as long as the average on "The Market" for the rest of the day (with about 5 hr left) is less than ~10%, this will resolve YES. The market has been sitting around 3% for the last few hours and hasn't even reached 10% for about 7 hours (and even then, it was immediately bet back down to 6%). The last time the market was at or above 10% for any substantial amount of time was 12 hours ago.

Latest means NO must keep it under ~7.5% avg until midnight to guarantee the win.

@deagol It's currently at 6% and has gone down to 5%, so this market looks like it's headed for a YES resolution.

@JosephNoonan great job picking the cutoff time, which made it quite interesting yesterday

@deagol Yeah, I happened to pick just the right cutoff time, down to the hour. I'm currently predicting that NO gets a guaranteed victory about half an hour before this market closes. If I had even been in a different time zone, this market would be a little less exciting.

Last update means YES needs to hold the average below 8.3% over the next 19h to get this done by midnight. Tons of limits to push through but might get canceled.

of course, I meant NO 🙃

Pretty sure YES can no longer force a win in time, need to hold 100% well into 4/2, around 2 am EST. NO can force a win if hold it around 15.2% from now until midnight 4/2.

Latest update https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-the-average-probability-of-thi#m1yeVnZaeJg0JOIDGeZJ

This puts the (Y, N) avg needed over the next 34h to guarantee a win by 4/2 EST as (18.7, 85.0)

sorry that would be (N, Y), obviously the lower bound guarantees a win for N

if the current value is held for the next 10h, then Y team cannot guarantee a win before this market deadline

however that doesn’t make it any easier for N to guarantee it in time, it would need to avg under 6.1% for the remaining 24h in this market

I mean, it's super close right now

(43.3, 56.7) are the bounds necessary for NO, if I did my math right (I calculated 50((168+22.5) / 168) and then 100 minus that)

by "bounds", I mean bounds for what the average is at when this market closes

no wait my math is nonsense

If the market is at 0 for all of the last 22.5 hours, and the average is 50, then we have 50 = x((168-22.5)/168), and x is 57.73. If it's at 100 for the last 22.5 hours, symmetrically, it's 42.27. The bounds are (42.27, 57.73). I think

@Conflux so what’s the level they’d need to average over the next 38h until April 2, to achieve those bounds?

I think we need an update on the average by now, but I suspect just below 50%.

@deagol https://manifold.markets/Conflux/will-the-average-probability-of-thi#q93L5ItBPd2fcghHdSnd

@NicoDelon thanks! so the bounds to force it in the next 38h I get are (21.47, 80.68), but I suspect those will narrow by tonight

ah no I was wrong, that range will widen as we get closer to 4/2. I think a simple formula for the range is 22.5/(hours until 4/2) currently ~61%

let t be the time remaining until market closes.

I can prove, mathematically, that as t approaches infinitely close to 0, one side would be guaranteed to win for some t>0.

@AmmonLam This isn't about whether it will be mathematically guaranteed at some point before closing time. It's about whether it will be mathematically guaranteed before the closing date begins. Since the market doesn't resolve until 10:30 PM, that requires it to be be guaranteed at least 22.5 hours before closing time.

@JosephNoonan I see. Thanks for the clarification