Will my DeSantis market be my most popular this year?
10
144
210
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
YES

This market has been around for a while, but recently it started picking up a lot of new traders. It is about to surpass the free response free for all as my second-most popular market of all time. It's still quite a bit behind my most popular market, /PlasmaBallin/is-manifold-just-a-bunch-of-white-g, which had 150 traders (the DeSantis market has 105 at the time of writing). But the former is already resolved, while the latter could stay open for the rest of the year.

This market resolves YES if the question embedded above has at least as many unique traders as any of my other Manifold questions at the end of 2023 (CT). That means it still resolves YES even if it is tied with another one as the most popular. Polls and bounties still count as questions (with voters and commenters being the equivalent of traders), so they could still beat the DeSantis market and make this one resolve NO.

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bought Ṁ10 of YES

It has already become my most popular market, so now the only way this resolves NO is if another market surpasses it. But it is still way ahead of any of my other open markets and gaining traders at a faster rate than they are.

This probability should be strictly lower than 100% minus https://manifold.markets/JosephNoonan/will-my-most-popular-market-this-ye

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