On my survey, I will ask,
You are presented with two boxes. One is transparent and contains $1000, and the other is opaque. You know that the opaque box contains either $1,000,000 or nothing, and you are given the choice to either take just the opaque box (one-boxing), or to take both boxes (two-boxing). However, there is a catch: Before you make your decision, an extremely advanced device will be used to scan your nervous system and predict what decision you will make, and the contents of the opaque box are determined by its prediction. This device is very reliable: It has been used on many people performing the same experiment before, and has never been wrong. If the device predicts that you are going to two-box, it will put nothing in the opaque box, but if it predicts that you will one-box, it will put $1,000,000 in it. Should you two box or one box?
Two box
One box
Not sure
Resolves YES if more people one-box than two-box, NO if more people two-box, and 50% if there's a tie.
See Plasma's Manifold Survey for other questions about the survey.
The survey is officially out! You can take it here: https://forms.gle/xZqWVxuY5irgLigu9
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ22 | |
| 2 | Ṁ13 | |
| 3 | Ṁ9 | |
| 4 | Ṁ5 | |
| 5 | Ṁ2 |
People are also trading
No surprises here, the vast majority chose one-boxing.
https://plasmabloggin.substack.com/p/survey-results-pt-4-philosophy
@JosephNoonan I am too rational to benefit from scenarios designed to reward irrationality.
@JoshuaFosse If you can predictably benefit from a certain behavior, it makes no sense to call it irrational. Knowing that a decision you make will have a worse outcome than the opposite decision, and deciding to do it anyway, is the height of irrationality.
@JosephNoonan Can't I make a flippant, amusing comment without someone coming at me with a serious argument?
@JoshuaFosse I thought that was meant to be an argument. "Newcomb scenarios are designed to reward irrationality," is one of the common rebuttals used by two-boxers against the case for one boxing.