Will FiveThirtyEight's final 2024 presidential forecast give Biden a >=80% chance of winning?
Basic
18
αΉ6.7kNov 6
3%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I will base this on whatever number is displayed on the website, so if they round it to the nearest whole percentage, so will I. If 538 doesn't provide a forecast in 2024, this market resolves N/A.
Get αΉ600 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will 538 polling predict the correct winner of the presidential election?
70% chance
How confident will 538's final 2024 presidential election forecast be?
Will Biden's FiveThirtyEight approval rating go above 42% before the Election? πΊπΈπ³οΈπ½
34% chance
Will Biden's approval rating be above 40% on FiveThirtyEight as of August 1 2024?
18% chance
Will 538 correctly predict the winner of the 2024 presidential election?
71% chance
Will Biden's FiveThirtyEight approval rating go below 35% before the Election?
23% chance
Will Joe Biden win the election?
47% chance
Will 538's 2024 Presidential Election model change by at least 10 percentage points, start to finish?
78% chance
Conditional on a No Labels candidate getting at least 5% of the popular vote, will Joe Biden win the 2024 election?
26% chance
Conditional on Biden winning, on the Monday before the election, will Manifold give him >=80% chance?
15% chance