Since promoting in Leagues depends only on doing better than the other users in your league, it's possible that someone could promote to a higher bracket despite having negative mana earned if everyone else in the league does even worse. This market resolves YES if that happens before the end of 2023, or if it happens to someone in a Leagues season that takes place mostly in 2023 (presumably Season 8 will take place in December but go slightly into Jan. 1, so by this rule, it still counts). Otherwise, it resolves NO.
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It took me a while to figure out exactly what's going on with promotions, but I think it actually must have been impossible to promote with negative mana to begin with. There are some Leagues where you can see that seemingly people would have promoted with negative mana (e.g., this one), but didn't because the bar for promotion was just moved right below the lowest person with positive mana. Although the display is glitched out, so it's hard to know for sure what happened.
@Eliza used a code to run through all the Leagues data to see if anyone was in a higher division the season after their mana was negative and found that there was only one case where this happened. But that case was because of @Catnee moving from the Silicon League (for bots) to Platinum, not because of promotion.
While looking through the previous seasons, I realize that past bronze leagues are now labeled with "requires at least 100 mana earned to promote" even though that wasn't always true. I'll have to find out when this happened and what the previous threshold was so I can make sure no one promoted from a bronze league with negative mana.