Since promoting in Leagues depends only on doing better than the other users in your league, it's possible that someone could promote to a higher bracket despite having negative mana earned if everyone else in the league does even worse. This market resolves YES if that happens before the end of 2023, or if it happens to someone in a Leagues season that takes place mostly in 2023 (presumably Season 8 will take place in December but go slightly into Jan. 1, so by this rule, it still counts). Otherwise, it resolves NO.