Will any protest vote against Biden receive more than 10% of the vote in the rest of the Democratic primaries?
Will any protest vote against Biden receive more than 10% of the vote in the rest of the Democratic primaries?
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760Ṁ21kresolved Mar 6
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In the Michigan primary, "Uncommitted" received 13% of the vote due to a campaign to vote "Uncommitted" as a protest against Biden's handling of the war in Gaza. In any of the remaining Democratic primaries or caucuses, will any single option other than Biden receive more than 10% of the votes? This could be another candidate, an option that represents no candidate (like "Uncommitted" or "None of these options"), or a specific write-in option chosen by more than 10% of voters (like "ceasefire"). This question includes all contests, including the ones in U.S. territories.
If Biden dies or otherwise leaves the race before the primaries are over, but no option has received more than 10% of the votes before then, this question resolves N/A.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.