In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will any candidate win a state while getting less than 50% of the votes from that state? This can happen if they win only a plurality of the votes in that state, or if the state uses a ranked-choice method, and they don't win the majority of first-place votes.
1,000
3.00Decided to look up some historical data, and:
2020: Four states won by plurality - NC, GA, AZ, WI
2016: Fourteen states won by plurality - UT, NC, AZ, FL, WI, PA, MI, NH, MN, NV, ME, CO, VA, NM
2012: Zero states won by plurality - FL the closest at 50.01% (!)
2008: Four states won by plurality: MT, MO, NC, IN
2004: Three states won by plurality: NM, IA, WI
2000: Ten states won by plurality: NV, OH, NH, FL, NM, WI, IA, OR, MN, ME
Seems like the base rate is really high, with 2012 just barely being an exception.