I looked up "Epic Rap Battles Harris v Trump" to see if there was any news about plans for making the episode. I didn't find any news, but I did find a reddit post where this was the top comment:

So seems like I'm not the only one who had that idea.

For reference, if the second thing happens (TheIntrepid's suggestion), that would not be enough to count for this option.

@Rolledupaces does it have to be a speaking appearance

@jBosc No. If the character appears, that’s enough

@Odoacre Is this answer meant to include someone talking about a bratwurst?

As long as they spell it brat, I guess?

@Odoacre Will numbers be assumed to be written out? For example, would it be "59" or "fifty-nine"?

Good question, I guess whatever makes it easier to process the count, in general my natural approach would be to ignore digits, however if the official transcript (assuming it exists) uses numbers spelt out as words then we would use that.

Good luck parsing it out if it's an "Eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeepic Rap Battle of Historyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy!" 😆

I would count numbers as being in word form. I was planning not to include the introduction or the outro, though, only the lyrics of the rap itself.

To make my previous comment more direct, if the introducer prolongs the pronunciation of "Epic Rap Battles of History" like he sometimes does, will we be using the closed caption transcript from the YouTube video? Or will we be using the standard spelling non-strung-out version of the words? Or will we refer to some other reference like a Shazam lyrics transcript?

@Quroe

I think that, to make it consistent with the results that I would have to use if there's not an official transcript, I will count any prolonging of words by drawing out a sound as still being the normal spelling of the word.

But I am planning not to include the announcer saying "Epic Rap Battles of History" at the beginning as part of the lyrics anyway.

After doing more research, music sites that post the lyrics (like YouTube Music) seem to start the lyrics after the announcer says "Begin!" and not include any of his intro. They also tend to not include the "Who won? Who's next? You decide!" outro. Basically, the announcer is totally excluded.

I'm on board with your interpretation.

@bluerat Is this absolute probability or conditional on Biden being featured at all?

I'm interpreting this as absolute (or more specifically, conditional on the rap battle existing at all like the other options)

Yeah, I meant what plasma ballin' said. It's also unimportant enough to me that I would have deferred to plasma ballin's interpretation regardless.

What's interesting to me is that Nice Peter played Abraham Lincoln in all the other election episodes except the one where he played Biden (the most recent one), I am thinking if he plays Joe Biden again that will make it less likely he plays Abe Lincoln again and vis versa, of course there's nothing stopping him from playing both, but it seems less likely to me. What's also interesting to me is that Nice Peter also played Donald Trump in Donald Trump vs Ebenezer Scrooge, so he has already and could theoretically again play any of the three of Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and/or Abraham Lincoln. But then who would EpicLLOYD play.

The VP nominees have never appeared before, though maybe they will this time, since there's a lot more news about them than normal.

@PlasmaBallin Hmm what if it’s Biden

I think that's why it's <50%

Found a few markets for arbitrage:

Every option here is >50%. Maybe we need some less likely options. Or maybe the bettors are wrong

Hm, I was thinking this should be basically 50/50, but actually, if they do the "Harris swaps out for Biden" thing, it could very well be Biden who ends up with the first verse.

Good catch, I was planning to put this one in there but totally forgot.

Also note: I edited it for clarity, I assume "they" just meant "someone" and not multiple people

I'm surprised that people think it's more likely than not to start this way, even though I think it would be very funny if they did.

I hope a line like, "couch it," (to set something aside) would be sufficient.