"Uncommitted" got 13.2% of the votes in Michigan's Democratic primary. Minnesota also has an "Uncommitted" option, and, like in Michigan, there is a campaign there to get people to vote against Biden in the primary to protest the war in Gaza. What percentage of the vote will it get?
1,000
3.00This market currently gives a larger chance of "Uncommitted" receiving more than 10% in Minnesota than my other market gives of any protest option getting that much in any state.
https://manifold.markets/PlasmaBallin/will-any-protest-vote-against-biden
@PlasmaBallin Everyone knows when you break down an option into lots of separate categories, Reality is impressed with how disjunctive that sounds and allocates more probability. /s
(See the last option on this market: If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason? | Manifold)