"Uncommitted" got 13.2% of the votes in Michigan's Democratic primary. Minnesota also has an "Uncommitted" option, and, like in Michigan, there is a campaign there to get people to vote against Biden in the primary to protest the war in Gaza. What percentage of the vote will it get?
1,000
3.00🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ592 | |
| 2 | Ṁ82 | |
| 3 | Ṁ59 | |
| 4 | Ṁ8 | |
| 5 | Ṁ2 |
This market currently gives a larger chance of "Uncommitted" receiving more than 10% in Minnesota than my other market gives of any protest option getting that much in any state.
https://manifold.markets/PlasmaBallin/will-any-protest-vote-against-biden
@PlasmaBallin Everyone knows when you break down an option into lots of separate categories, Reality is impressed with how disjunctive that sounds and allocates more probability. /s
(See the last option on this market: If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason? | Manifold)