What percentage of the Democratic primary vote in Minnesota will be "Uncommitted"?
19
200
965
resolved Mar 6
100%99.5%
17 -100%
0.0%
0 - 5%
0.1%
5 - 8%
0.1%
8 - 10%
0.1%
10 - 11%
0.1%
11 - 12%
0.1%
12 - 13.2%
0.0%
13.2 - 15%
0.0%
15 - 17%

"Uncommitted" got 13.2% of the votes in Michigan's Democratic primary. Minnesota also has an "Uncommitted" option, and, like in Michigan, there is a campaign there to get people to vote against Biden in the primary to protest the war in Gaza. What percentage of the vote will it get?

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sold Ṁ0 15 - 17% YES

Mathematically guaranteed now

sold Ṁ0 13.2 - 15% YES

The outstanding vote would have to be have than half of the percentage of "Uncommitted" votes as the currently counted votes in order for this to go below 17%.

This market currently gives a larger chance of "Uncommitted" receiving more than 10% in Minnesota than my other market gives of any protest option getting that much in any state.

https://manifold.markets/PlasmaBallin/will-any-protest-vote-against-biden

@PlasmaBallin Everyone knows when you break down an option into lots of separate categories, Reality is impressed with how disjunctive that sounds and allocates more probability. /s

(See the last option on this market: If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason? | Manifold)

bought Ṁ30 0 - 5% NO

Arb

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