This market resolves NO after it closes on the day of the 2024 election. Thus, it can be compared to markets about the 2024 election to see what percentage represents a credence of roughly 0%. For example, if a Manifold market says that a candidate has a 1% chance of winning, and the risk free interest rate is also 1%, then what this really means is that Manifolders believe that the candidate has virtually no chance of winning (a probability much less than 1%), but aren't willing to lock up their mana until the election just to make the small profit they would get from betting it all the way down to 0.

There are of course, limitations:

• Different people have different interest rates, so the percentage of this market isn't necessarily the same as the interest rate for traders on a different market.

• If the result really is certain, a market with more traders will probably get pushed lower because no one will be betting YES, and people will continue betting NO.

• Not all markets on the 2024 elections will resolve at exactly the same time as this one. I usually set my markets on the election to close at the end of November, under the assumption that we'll know the results by then, even if they're still uncertain on Election Day. So this market might not be completely accurate as we get close to election day, since the interest rate for this market could be less than that for a market that isn't expected to resolve on Election Day.

• People aren't perfectly rational profit maximizers, so they may bet markets down for reasons other than just making a risk-free profit. For example, they may bet something down to 0 to signal just how ridiculous they think it is.