How will @SophiaLaird resolve the free response free for all?
Basic
5
Ṁ11k
resolved Aug 31
100%99.9%Other
0.0%
Resolve to all true, non-paradoxical, non-equally-consistent options that are known to be true at close
0.0%
Resolve to all true, self-resolving, non-paradoxical, non-equally-consistent options known to be true at close
0.0%
Use either of the above methods, except that at least one "equally-consistent" option is also resolved to.
0.0%
Use any of the above methods (including the third one), except that options that are guaranteed to pay out (like "pays out if the probability is between 0% and 100%, inclusive") don't pay out.
0.0%
Decide to wait until it's known whether certain options are true of not (like the busy beaver option)
0.0%
Doesn't resolve, but for a different reason than the option above, or for unexplained reasons.
0.0%
Resolve N/A
0.0%
Resolve to "This will cash out by itself if the market creator decides it will be too much work to determine which options cash out but does not want to N/A the market."

This is the market in question:

There are a lot of questions about how this one will be resolved because the resolution criteria left open a lot of loopholes where it is unclear how certain options should be dealt with, and of course, given that people can submit any answer they want, those loopholes were quickly abused. At this point, it is impossible for the market to resolve to all true statements, since some are true if and only if they don't cash out. Among the problematic answer types are:

  • Paradoxical options (options that cash out if and only if they don't cash out)

  • Options for which it won't be known whether they should cash out (e.g., "This option cashes out if BB(n), where n is the number of options, is even")

  • Options that aren't self resolving (the description requests that all options be self-resolving, but doesn't explicitly state that non-self-resolving options are excluded from consideration.)

  • Some options can consistently cash out or not cash out, like "This will cash out if it cashes out". I'll call these "equally-consistent".

There are also some meta-options, like "This will cash out by itself if the market creator decides it will be too much work to determine which options cash out but does not want to N/A the market," and some have wondered if options that are guaranteed to cash out should be allowed.

This market will resolve to whichever option below describes the method by which Sophia Laird resolves her market. "Doesn't resolve" means that the market is still unresolved at the end of 2023, and I will use whatever Sophia Laird says is her reasoning for not resolving yet when I consider whether to resolve this market to the 5th or 6th option. Note that, I will still count it as resolving either to the 5th or 6th option even if Sophia later does resolve it.

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The market has resolved. Looking at the resolution to see what method was used, I am not sure exactly what methodology was used to make the "executive decisions". There are some things that are obvious, like "DeadRhino's options didn't all pay out, despite being true, because they felt too spammy," and "The paradoxical option resolved to 0% so that it could justifiably be claimed both that it paid out and that it didn't pay out", but there are some things I'm less certain of, like why, "This option cashes out if its displayed percentage at close is EITHER 2.0% or less OR an odd integer (3%, 5%, etc.)" didn't pay out despite being true or why, "This will cash out if at least 20% of the other options are paradoxical or not self-resolving" did pay out (I'm not sure which ten options counted as paradoxical or non-self-resolving).

However, what's definitely certain is that it didn't resolve according to any of the methodologies I had in my options. Since some options that were definitely true, self-resolving, non-paradoxical, non-equally-consistent, and not guaranteed to pay out were not resolved to, that automatically rules out any of the first four options as being the method used. The market resolved only a day after close, despite the value of BB(n) not being known, so none of the options about not resolving/waiting to resolve are true. And of course, it didn't resolve N/A or to "This will cash out by itself if the market creator decides it will be too much work to determine which options cash out but does not want to N/A the market." Thus, the correct resolution here is "Other".

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