
This is the market in question:
There are a lot of questions about how this one will be resolved because the resolution criteria left open a lot of loopholes where it is unclear how certain options should be dealt with, and of course, given that people can submit any answer they want, those loopholes were quickly abused. At this point, it is impossible for the market to resolve to all true statements, since some are true if and only if they don't cash out. Among the problematic answer types are:
Paradoxical options (options that cash out if and only if they don't cash out)
Options for which it won't be known whether they should cash out (e.g., "This option cashes out if BB(n), where n is the number of options, is even")
Options that aren't self resolving (the description requests that all options be self-resolving, but doesn't explicitly state that non-self-resolving options are excluded from consideration.)
Some options can consistently cash out or not cash out, like "This will cash out if it cashes out". I'll call these "equally-consistent".
There are also some meta-options, like "This will cash out by itself if the market creator decides it will be too much work to determine which options cash out but does not want to N/A the market," and some have wondered if options that are guaranteed to cash out should be allowed.
This market will resolve to whichever option below describes the method by which Sophia Laird resolves her market. "Doesn't resolve" means that the market is still unresolved at the end of 2023, and I will use whatever Sophia Laird says is her reasoning for not resolving yet when I consider whether to resolve this market to the 5th or 6th option. Note that, I will still count it as resolving either to the 5th or 6th option even if Sophia later does resolve it.
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ250 | |
2 | Ṁ197 | |
3 | Ṁ18 |