Although my current Manifold survey is still open, I have a whole list of questions I want to put on a second survey. How long will I be able to resist the temptation to create a second one?
Resolves to the latest time that I was able to hold out before either releasing a second survey, or creating a market about one that I am planning to release (e.g., a market stating that a certain question will be on the survey and asking what the results will be). It doesn't count if it's a market that's conditional on me actually creating the survey, like, "If I create a second Manifold survey in 2023, how many people will take it?"
For the purpose of this market, the time at which "the first survey is concluded" will be the time that I resolve this market: /JosephNoonan/when-all-is-said-and-done-who-will
In other words, it is the time at which I have finished analyzing and reporting the results enough to resolve all of my markets about the results.
1,000
3.00@snoozingnewt If I do that, then you probably won't want so many NO shares in "Until the end of November."
@snoozingnewt I have been able to avoid the temptation thus far by just turning anything that I could otherwise have made a question on a big survey into a single Manifold poll. But that doesn't work for free-response questions, so I may yet make another survey if I think of a bunch of those that I want to ask.
@snoozingnewt It's asking how long I am able to resist the temptation. So I have already resisted it until the end of November, but not until the end of 2023. If I put out a survey in 2023, it will resolve to "Until the end of November."