
All answer submissions must be a declarative statement about this market itself, for example, "This market will have more than 10 options," or "The percentage of this option is between 5% and 10%." Any answer that is not phrased as a declarative sentence or isn't about this market will not pay out (when I say "pay out", I mean that I will resolve partially to that option). You can, however, include something in addition to the declarative sentence as a tag, e.g., "ABC: This option is higher than 5%", for the purpose of referencing it with other options (e.g, "ABC has a higher probability than DEF."). But don't duplicate someone else's tag - otherwise, your option won't pay out, as a punishment for confusing traders.
I will resolve equally to all options that meet the above criteria, as well as the following:
They are true at close.
I either know that they are true, or can easily verify it. This means that options like "This option's percentage has the same parity as the eleventh Dedekind number," will not pay out, unless I can find some proof that they are true.
They weren't guaranteed to be true when they were submitted. So no, "The probability of this option is between 0% and 100%, inclusive."
The option does not reference the number of traders or the number of trades on the market.
The option only references events that occur before close, or simultaneously to it. This means that, "At least five answers pay out," is not a valid option, since payouts don't occur until after close. However, "At least five answers are true," is valid (more on that later).
The truth of the option is not a matter of significant controversy among well-informed people, a subjective opinion, or a private detail of someone's life.
The option is not horribly offensive in some way.
No user may submit more than five options. If you do, any options you submit aside from the first five will not pay out. If I can't figure out which ones are the first five, I'll use my best judgement.
In the case of ambiguous options, I will either resolve according to what I think is the most straightforward interpretation of the sentence, or, if I think it is so ambiguous that there is no straightforward interpretation, that option will not pay out unless all interpretations that I think are reasonable candidates for the straightforward meaning are true.
Misspellings and grammatical mistakes are okay, as long as it's obvious what they mean.
The option doesn't violate Manifold's rules, such as encouraging spam, nor does it have a significant chance of encouraging behavior that is harmful or illegal in the U.S.
Options that refer to truth will be dealt with using Tarski's truth hierarchy. This is a solution to linguistic paradoxes like the liar's paradox that notes that semantic terms like "true" are inherently ambiguous when used to refer to sentences that are allowed to include semantic terms themselves. This ambiguity is what leads to the seeming contradiction in "This sentence is false," and the indeterminacy of "This sentence is true," and it results from the fact that no completely precise language can include a truth predicate that applies to all sentences in the language, including sentences that contain the truth predicate itself. To get around this, Tarski proposed defining a hierarchy of truth predicates. The first predicate, true1, applies only to object-level sentences, that is, sentences that do not themselves include semantic terms like truth values. So, for example, "Snow is white," is true1, but "'Snow is white' is true1" is not true1. To describe the truth of meta-sentences that include semantic predicates like true1 and false1, we use sentences on the next level of the hierarchy, true2 and false2. So "'Snow is white' is true1" is true2. "Snow is white," itself is also true2. This can continue indefinitely, where the predicate true-α can describe the truth of any sentence that contains only truth predicates of order less than α.
To utilize Tarski's truth hierarchy, I will assume that, unless otherwise specified, any option that uses words like "true" and "false" is referring to true1 or false1. So an option stating, "This option is not true" would count as being true2, since it is indeed not true1 (since true1 doesn't apply to it). However, that particular example wouldn't pay out anyway, since it is guaranteed to be true2. Similarly, "This option is false" is false2, since the predicate false1 doesn't apply to it, so it would not pay out either. But an option like, "At least five options are true" can pay out, as long as five options that don't contain a truth predicate are indeed true.
(This next bit is technical and almost certainly won't matter to you unless you are trying to find a way to break this market.) Note that the Tarskian hierarchies also apply to other semantic properties, if necessary. For example, if someone tries to break the truth hierarchy by submitting "At least one option is true-n, where n is one higher than the largest order of a truth predicate in any option", then I will not include any truth predicates whose order is predicated on the orders of the whole collection of truth predicates when determining the value of n.
Oh, and for the sake of following my own rules, any time the word "true" is used in this description without qualification, it refers to true-ω₁. If you have no idea what that means, don't worry about it. It will only matter to people who know enough about set theory to try to break the criteria I've put in place.
There is one additional caveat that I need to mention when dealing with words like "true". I will restrict their scope to only include options that are valid responses and fit the bullet points above, unless otherwise stated. So for example, if someone submitted an option like, "This option's percentage has the same parity as the eleventh Dedekind number", the truth of that option would not affect whether "At most ten options are true" pays out. This is to avoid options like the latter being penalized as "can't be verified" just because of other bad options.
If none of the options are valid and true at close (somehow), I will resolve the market to Other. That is the only situation in which Other pays out.
Please note that I have the final say on how this market resolves. I will do my best to follow the rules above, but if some game-breaking exploit is found (something that would make it impossible to resolve correctly in a reasonable amount of time), I may add further rules or clarify the existing rules to counter it. You can, however, abuse loopholes in the rules that don't break the game. I have intentionally left some open.
Credit to @SophiaLaird for creating the market that inspired this and to @Joshua for originally coming up with a list of rules to make a version with more precise resolution criteria that wouldn't lead to paradoxes. I have kept or modified some of Joshua's rules and added a bunch of rules of my own to prevent game-breaking exploits that were possible even under his rule set.
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ1,932 | |
2 | Ṁ646 | |
3 | Ṁ624 | |
4 | Ṁ575 | |
5 | Ṁ503 |